The 2024 Labor Market: A Year of Conflicts and a Glimpse into 2025

As 2024 draws to a close, it’s easy to feel a sense of unease when reflecting on the state of the labor market. Unemployment has been steadily climbing, and economists predict it will continue to rise until hitting a low of 7% in the first quarter of 2025. The federal government’s unpredictable shifts in immigration policy have left countless temporary workers and students in a precarious position, unsure of their future in Canada. Meanwhile, middle-to-high-income private sector jobs continue to be negatively impacted, and employers are facing significant pushback from employees regarding return-to-office mandates and performance expectations.   

Union activity has been particularly pronounced despite clear evidence that adapting to the current economic climate necessitates fundamental changes in the workforce to address Canada’s productivity challenges. Ottawa, in particular, is experiencing a concerning decline in office attendance levels, lagging behind other major Canadian cities. While acknowledging that many face barriers to returning to the office, this trend is alarming for a capital city aspiring to attract businesses, new residents, and visitors while fostering economic prosperity.

Finding the Silver Lining

While many sectors continue to struggle, there’s a growing sense of optimism among employers. After navigating a turbulent few years, businesses are regaining control, adapting to the new economic landscape and strategically investing in their growth.

Interest rates are steadily declining, providing much-needed relief. Companies are experiencing improved cash flow and financial stability, allowing them to hire with confidence and establish fair terms for their employees.

One promising indicator is the recent increase in average hours worked. This suggests a positive impact from return-to-office mandates, boosting productivity and collaboration in both the private and public sectors.

Drivers of Hiring Activity

Hiring activity in Q4 2024 has significantly increased compared to the same period last year. This surge is fueled by two key factors:

1. Rebalancing Teams: Employers are actively adjusting their workforce, often replacing employees hired during the 2020-2022 period who are unable to meet evolving expectations. This highlights a shift towards a more balanced and productive workforce.
2. The Rise of Retirements: Retirements are playing a major role in driving recruitment activity. This trend is expected to continue into 2025, presenting both challenges and opportunities for organizations in talent planning.

Looking Ahead to 2025

2025 promises to be a year of transition, with a new government, workforce adjustments in the public sector and a renewed focus on productivity. Retirements will continue to fuel hiring needs across all industries.

We anticipate that unemployment will peak in late Q1 2025 as immigration policy changes and interest rate adjustments take effect. However, these changes will ultimately enable businesses to invest more in their workforce, fostering growth in the latter half of the year. While cautious optimism prevails, 2025 is poised to be a year of relative stability for many businesses.

Keynote Search in 2024: Simplifying, Focusing, and Thriving

2024 was a year of transformation and focus for Keynote. We streamlined our operations and dedicated ourselves to what we do best: executing exceptional search projects. We have successfully delivered close to 100 search processes, partnering with a diverse range of organizations from professional sports franchises to the City of Ottawa, PE-backed scale-ups, non-profit organizations and everything in between!

This renewed focus allowed us to:

• Reconnect with our core strengths: We prioritized client development and search delivery, ensuring exceptional service and results for our clients.
• Reinforce our commitment to Ottawa: We solidified our position as Ottawa’s leading search firm, dedicated to serving our local community through our time, resources and advocacy.
• Invest in our team: We welcomed new talent while celebrating the success of team members who have embarked on exciting new ventures.

As one of our advisors aptly put it, “We stopped worrying about conquering the world and have focused on how to conquer our world.”

We’re proud to have played a key role in building strong leadership teams and driving success for these organizations. While we compete with global search firms, we remain dedicated to serving our local community. As Ottawa’s best local firm, we’re committed to making our city a better place to live, work, and play.

New for 2025 : Introducing “Integrate”, Elevating Leadership Transitions

At Keynote, we’re passionate about ensuring the long-term success of the leaders we place. That’s why we’re thrilled to announce the launch of “Integrate,” our post-placement integration service as a standalone product.

“Integrate” provides comprehensive support for key hires and promotions, facilitating seamless transitions and accelerating their impact within your organization.

What “Integrate” Offers:

• Personalized coaching and mentorship
• Structured onboarding programs
• Leadership development resources
• Ongoing support and guidance

Whether you’ve partnered with Keynote for your search process or not, “Integrate” can help your leaders thrive. Visit our Keynote Coaching website to learn more about this exciting new offering.

Hear From Some of the Successful Integrations the Keynote Team has Led

Deborah Lehmann, CEO of The Ottawa Cancer Foundation, embarked on a profound journey of intentional leadership and self-reflection. In her words, “The Integration program provided me with the opportunity to intentionally consider my overall business and management approaches to several key areas. It helped me leverage my inner wisdom and identify blind spots in order to build trust more effectively within the organization. As a result, I was able to drive meaningful improvements in our structure and processes more effectively. This dedicated time with a coach not only supported my initial integration but continues to help me refine and embed my leadership style within the organization’s culture.” This sustained coaching has empowered Deborah to make impactful, lasting changes that have strengthened the organizational structure, fostered trust, and amplified her leadership’s positive influence across the Foundation.

“The Integration program has been a game-changer for our new leadership hires. The structured support and personalized coaching provided during onboarding made a significant difference in their ability to hit the ground running, setting a new standard for effective leadership onboarding. In addition, individual coaching has been instrumental in supporting leaders’ ongoing development beyond the integration period, helping them continuously refine their skills and enhance their contributions to the organization.” – Laura Dionne, Senior Director, People & Culture, Ottawa Senators Hockey Club

“My easy transition and strong foundation building as a leader were much enhanced by the integration mentoring from Brenda I received when I first joined the Ottawa Food Bank in 2022. Since then, the ongoing coaching opportunities with Brenda have been priceless, arming me with the leadership qualities required to advance both personally and professionally. It makes me glad to observe how this investment in my personal development has improved not just my own but also the general performance of my team.” – Drew Conroy, Director of Operations, Ottawa Food Bank

As we look forward to 2025, Keynote remains committed to driving meaningful change and supporting leaders in their journey to make a lasting impact—because when leadership thrives, organizations and communities do too.